Regime shifts: catastrophic responses of ecosystems to human impacts

Abstract

Evidence of abrupt changes in ecosystem states, such as sudden eutrophication in lakes, has been increasingly reported in a variety of aquatic and terrestrial systems. Ecosystems may have more than one state with a self-stabilizing mechanism, so that a shift between states does not occur frequently and is not readily reversible. These big changes are termed regime shifts where often one state is preferred over another. Thus, regime shifts are problematic for ecosystem managers, and the need exists for studies that lead to the identification of thresholds of key variables that trigger regime shifts. Regime shifts are currently difficult to predict and in many cases may be caused by the human pursuit of efficiency in land and water productivity in the last few decades. Here I briefly introduce a theoretical approach to predict the shift between a clear-water state and a turbid state in lakes, the best-studied example of regime shifts. This paper also discusses alternative states in other natural systems besides ecosystems to draw more attention to the research currently being performed on regime shifts.