Volume 61, Issue 2 p. 198-209
ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Boom to bust? Implications for the continued rapid growth of the eastern Australian humpback whale population despite recovery

Michael J. Noad

Corresponding Author

Michael J. Noad

Cetacean Ecology and Acoustics Laboratory, School of Veterinary Science, The University of Queensland, Gatton, Queensland, Australia

Correspondence

Michael J. Noad, Cetacean Ecology and Acoustics Laboratory, School of Veterinary Science, The University of Queensland, Gatton, Queensland 4343, Australia.

Email: [email protected]

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Eric Kniest

Eric Kniest

School of Engineering, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, New South Wales, Australia

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Rebecca A. Dunlop

Rebecca A. Dunlop

Cetacean Ecology and Acoustics Laboratory, School of Veterinary Science, The University of Queensland, Gatton, Queensland, Australia

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First published: 04 February 2019
Citations: 56

Funding information: Redland City Council; Department of the Environment

This paper is the winner of the Population Ecology Most Cited Paper Award 2021.

Abstract

Despite heavy overexploitation and near extirpation, some populations of large whales are recovering. Monitoring their recovery has important implications for conservation, management and our understanding of population dynamics and recovery in large mammals. The eastern Australian population of humpback whales was hunted to near-extirpation by the early 1960s. Despite this, the population started to recover, and structured surveys were initiated in the 1980s. These surveys comprise one of the longest and most consistent series of surveys of a population of whales in the world. Collectively, they have demonstrated a rapid recovery of the population with a long-term average rate of increase of 10.9% per annum. Here, we present the results of the last three surveys, conducted in 2007, 2010 and 2015. The 2015 survey shows that the population is essentially recovered, with abundance estimated at 24,545 whales (95% confidence interval 21,631–27,851), and yet continues to grow at a rapid rate. Modeling the rate of growth and abundance suggests that either the whales are heading for a higher than expected abundance of at least 40,000 whales or that an irruption may occur with models suggesting a peak in whale abundance in 2021–2026. Understanding the possible future scenarios of this population is critical to its management. This situation also presents a rare opportunity to study in detail the growth of a well-defined population of large mammal as it recovers from severe depletion.